Event: The Iran war

The Iran war is a reminder Europeans should move quickly to install a monitoring network that could identify a “dirty bomb” Former Head of the National Security Bureau of Poland View from the Council 27 April 2026 3 minute read Demonstration of a CBRM decontamination line of Lithuania‘s defence. The Dutch military is in Lithuania to defend the Eastern flank of NATO against Russia © Earlier this month, reports emerged of drones allegedly carrying radioactive materials in central London. The incident is a timely reminder of the need for European states to guard against such threats—both for the harm these could cause but also for the psychological effect they can have on states and societies.Great uncertainty—to put it lightly—remains around the future of Iran’s nuclear programme and its stockpiled fissile material. Debate has always focused on the prospect of a nuclear bomb. But especially in such a period of convulsive change, the same material could be used for other deadly purposes. The last official International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assessments indicated that, as of June 2025, Iran held approximately 440kg of uranium-235 enriched up to 60%, alongside further quantities of lower enriched uranium. The IAEA considers 25kg of uranium-235 a significant quantity, meaning it is the approximate amount needed for a single nuclear explosive device once processed to weapons-grade (90-95%). Iran had likely never accumulated an industrial quantity of such material. Yet, while Iran’s stockpile is insufficient for a nuclear bomb, it could be extraordinarily dangerous from a radiological and sabotage perspective. The dirty bomb and radiological risk Following the death of supreme leader Ali Khamenei in February, effective authority in Iran dispersed among Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders across 31 provinces. International institutions no longer know which entities have real control over the locations where fissile material is stored.…